Time to discuss the storm potential from Monday to Tuesday

2021-12-13 22:23:53 By : Mr. Jayce Zeng

A splash and sprint storm system crossed the Central Coast (and most of California), producing extensive showers, but not too difficult in terms of impact. Local rainfall generally stays within the forecast range below 0.30 inches.

The system is rapidly moving outwards, and high pressure is forming in the wake. This will produce some local sea gusts and clear up to part of the sky throughout the weekend. Some overnight lows inside tonight may be close to frost or freezing conditions, but it is more likely that freezing conditions will occur from Friday night to Saturday, and freezing observations have been issued.

The weekend looks dry, but it is much colder than the weather on the Central Coast for some time. In most cases, weekend highs will remain in the 50s and 60s.

On Monday, a stronger storm system arrived, and now it looks like the afternoon is coming, but since the low pressure center of the system is still in the Gulf of Alaska, this situation may change.

What makes this system more powerful is not only the low-pressure water trajectory, but also the strong southerly wind that will precede the low pressure. In addition, there is a good subtropical connection that not only activates the pump for higher rainfall predictions, but also for potentially higher rainfall rates, which may raise concerns about debris flow in the Alisal Fire burn scar.

Currently, the two-day storm is expected to have 1.5-5 inches of rain. During the main production period of the event, snow at 7000 feet and above still looks quite high.

If you compare this system with the strong storm in October, the upcoming storm looks stronger.

Thunderstorms look unlikely now, with a probability of about 10%, but this situation may change as the additional high-resolution modeling of the system that will be launched this weekend will come online. According to the development of the system, many potential consultations are possible, from flood consultation to wind consultation to potential mudslide consultation.

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